What is AGI now and when is it coming? Microsoft and OpenAI have different opinions

OpenAI and its major investor Microsoft appear to have fundamentally different opinions when it comes to general artificial intelligence (AGI). OpenAI boss Sam Altman believes that AGI can be achieved with current hardware and as early as 2025.

Has OpenAI already reached the AGI?

OpenAI employee Vahid Kazemi announced via X just a few days ago (6 December 2024) that, in his opinion, the company's AI model had already achieved AGI status. However, he also relativised the original expectations of the AGI.

According to Kazemi, the model cannot solve every task better than any human. But for most tasks, it surpasses the abilities of most people. The abilities are currently demonstrated by the GPT model o1.

Microsoft: AGI only in ten years

Microsoft's head of AI Mustafa Suleyman, meanwhile, contradicts this quite clearly. The development of an AGI is not possible with the current hardware. It will take another two to five hardware generations, i.e. up to ten years, to achieve AGI, as Suleyman predicted in a podcast.

Any concrete announcement, Suleyman said, probably with a sideways glance at Altman and OpenAI, felt ‘unfounded and exaggerated’ to him. After all, there is still a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the whole matter, as The Verge writes.

Suleyman sees a similar definition for AGI as OpenAI. General Artificial Intelligence is achieved when the AI systems developed by then are able to do most of the mental work of humans.

Microsoft and OpenAI: Different views

So why then the completely different assessment of the timing of achieving an AGI with OpenAI? This could have something to do with a clause in the contract with Microsoft. According to this clause, OpenAI can terminate the cooperation with the major investor when the AGI is officially announced.

Both companies currently appear to be exploring the respective limits for a possible exit. Currently, OpenAI could hardly survive financially without the Microsoft billions. However, turnover is expected to grow from the current 3.7 billion US dollars to 100 billion US dollars in just five years - with correspondingly high profits.

Tensions between OpenAI and Microsoft

Microsoft manager Suleyman admits to tensions between the two companies. This is ‘healthy and natural’, as they work in completely different business worlds. However, the head of AI at Microsoft is positive about the future.